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GDP Growth Forecast Reduced Again In the past three months Poland's growth outlook, already somewhat muted, has deteriorated further. High unemployment and stagnant wage growth, combined with a degree of uncertainty, have undermined consumer demand. Retail sales growth dropped from an average of 6.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) during the course of 2012, to only 0.8% in Q113. With inflation falling and unemployment still high (we expect it to rise to 14.2% this year from 13.4% in December 2012), wage growth has slowed down. We expect fixed investment to remain weak, in part because capacity utilisation remains low, at 72.9% in Q213. House prices continue to fall (down by 1.8% in Q113), which has led to a sharp slump in construction sales. The only positive contribution to growth is coming from net ...
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