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Russian petrochemicals capacity expansion over the medium term will be stimulated by expansion of nonoil industrial sectors and domestic market growth. BMI believes that a structural change in the economy towards domestic demand-led growth should benefit the petrochemicals industry, which is expected to see polymers capacity exceed 10mn tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2017 - a three-fold increase from that seen in 2008. Domestically-driven growth should ensure expansion does not lead to an imbalance between supply and demand, although in some segments there is the prospect of exports. We are revising down our 2013 real GDP forecast for Russia to 2.6%, from a previous forecast of 3.6%, on the back of signals that President Vladimir Putin is willing to let headline growth drop below the 3.0% level o ...
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