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We recently revised down our 2013 US real GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.8%, but we maintain that the US economy is gaining steam and is set for more rapid expansion over the coming quarters. Indeed, the downward revision to this year's growth forecast is mostly attributable to the first quarter figure and base effects from Q412, and we believe that risks are to our 2014 and 2015 real GDP growth forecasts of 2.7% and 2.6% are predominantly to the upside. We continue to believe the US consumer is slowly - and sometimes unsteadily - gaining momentum after several years of weak activity. A tax increase at the start of 2013 likely weighed on Q113 real private consumption, which still contributed 1.8 percentage points (pp) to real GDP growth and grew by 2.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), the strongest read ...
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