Price: $ 1295
BMI View: With another production shut-in only narrowly averted, the recently positive diplomatic overtures between Sudan and South Sudan are encouraging but do little to resolve the long-standing tensions that led Juba to secede in 2011. As a result, we retain a cautious and largely bearish view on the long-term outlook for the sector, even though we expect a strong rebound in production in 2014-2015 - notwithstanding elevated political risks. The longer-term outlook is bearish given we expect output from South Sudan's key oil producing blocks to head lower from 2017. Despite ambitious plans and the start of small fields in Sudan, the upstream outlook is even more bearish and we expect combined output for both countries to gradually head lower from the latter half of the decade. The main tr ...
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